Wilderness Guide

President’s Message

by - Thomas Twombly

artist - Daisy Lopez

I believe that life -

for all of us - is just a long adventure trip into the unknown wilderness. I also believe that the role of a trusted advisor is like that of a guide. In fact, our entire website is modelled on that theme, and it’s an idea we discuss around the office constantly. Plenty of my past musings have touched on the subject in one way or another, as many of you know.

I bring this up again because so much of what we’re all dealing with now seems unprecedented. Literally every single day we seem to get deeper and deeper into “uncharted territory” where it seems that the mental maps we have created, and that have worked well in the past, may no longer be accurate. And where the knowledge and experience we’ve accumulated so far seem insufficient for the changes and challenges we’re now confronting. It’s a daunting feeling.

To name just a few current issues: we’re rapidly moving towards yet another contentious Presidential election later this year, and for the first time ever, the leading candidate for one of the two major parties is a convicted felon. Artificial intelligence and social media, two recent “advancements” of the technological age, have now combined to enable anyone, including teenage boys (the most immature, impulsive, and short-sighted creatures on the planet – I know, I once was one) to freely create deepfake videos of other people in mere minutes. Misinformation and outright lies are propagated daily, and they spread like wildfire with seemingly little or no ability, or desire, to regulate or moderate it. Mass shootings have become so commonplace that they are hardly even noticed any more. “Civil War” is one of the most popular movies right now. Therapists and psychiatrists report levels of anxiety and stress in every single socio-economic class that are off the charts. People everywhere are struggling mightily – even those with good jobs and good incomes who are on sound financial footing feel anxious.

There is no question. It’s tough out there. And as human beings, it’s hard not to feel reactive.

There are certain things that a guide and his or her clients will never be able to control on their trip into the wilderness. It doesn’t matter how experienced they might be (or how earnestly they might want to try.) The weather, and the climate, are two of the biggest ones. Those just must be endured.

So, the one thing a guide must do – but can only do with the close cooperation of his or her clients - is to plan carefully and to prepare thoroughly for a wide range of possibilities. Good equipment, realistic expectations, and a determined sense of adaptability and resilience are musts. A solid grasp on what one must do, and what one must not do when conditions suddenly change is critical.

I think about our current environment in those terms. I don’t think there’s any other logical choice.

So here are some of the things that we’re talking about internally, and some of the things we can do to prepare ourselves and our treasured clients (you) for this continued journey into the unknown.

First and foremost, we can inspire trust by being honest, transparent, and being willing to say: “I don’t know.” Not only is there no shame in that, but there is honor in it. Because nobody else knows anything for sure either, though plenty in our profession pretend they do.

We can focus on setting realistic expectations, and by checking emotions – avoiding the extremes of deep pessimism or giddy ebullience that result in making big mistakes. And we can align investment portfolios with the specific financial needs, time horizons, and individual tolerance for ambiguity of each of our clients, getting to know each of them on a personal level so we know what’s most important, and why. And we can make sure never to take on more clients than we can responsibly serve in that individual manner, so we never jeopardize our ability to maintain those close relationships – especially during times of duress.

We can make sure to get things done, handling hundreds of important details with disciplined, documented processes that we follow, and by providing accountability, courage, and discipline in the face of the unknown and the unexpected.

We can have the intestinal fortitude to prevent destructive behaviors by being willing to say “no, you mustn’t do that.” And we can mitigate liquidity risk with careful individual planning and by following thoughtful cash management guidelines.

We can conduct “lifeboat drills” so none of our clients is caught unprepared by surprises or unexpected turns of events – because surprise is the mother of panic, and panic is to be avoided at all costs.

And we can commit to be there during times of stress or crisis – whether that stress and crisis happens to be widespread among many, or specific to just one – so every single client we guide has the confidence that they will never have to face any challenge alone.

And we can continue to emphasize the three critical principles of patience, discipline, and a long-term, hard-nosed faith in the future, along with the equally critical three practices of asset allocation, diversification, and rebalancing that have served all of us so well for so long.

Thank you again for your confidence and trust. We appreciate it more than we can ever convey.

Thomas G. Twombly

President